Donald Trump Surges Ahead of Kamala Harris in Nate Silver’s Forecast

Former President Donald Trump received a boost from polling guru Nate Silver, whose presidential model, which tracks polling data and electoral trends, now favors the Republican to win the election.
The latest projections from the Silver Bulletin model show Trump holding a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 49.5 percent, despite Harris leading significantly in the popular vote probability at 75 percent. It is Trump’s first lead in the model since September 19.
The slight edge in the Electoral College probability means that in more simulations, Trump is winning enough battleground states to secure a majority of electoral votes, even though Harris may win the popular vote or a narrow majority of electoral votes in other simulations.
A scenario in which no candidate reaches a majority in the Electoral College is also a slim possibility, with a 0.3 percent chance. The numbers are based on 40,000 simulations run by the model, reflecting a highly competitive race.
The updated forecast shows momentum shifting in Trump’s favor after several strong polling weeks in swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. These states, which were pivotal in Trump’s 2016 victory and his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, are once again proving to be crucial in determining the outcome of the election.
Yet, Silver cautions that the lead will continue to shift, likening it to a “110-109 basketball game in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.”
Silver’s model shows that Trump has gained 1.6 percentage points in Wisconsin, 0.9 points in Michigan and 0.4 points in Pennsylvania over the past week. While these changes may seem modest, Silver’s analysis suggests they could be a positive sign for Trump as he seeks to close the gap with Harris.​
Also, states like Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina remain highly competitive, according to Silver’s model, with Trump leading by slim margins. Georgia and Arizona are leaning slightly toward Trump, while North Carolina is seen as a critical state that could swing in either direction​.
Silver, known for his work with the poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight before launching the Silver Bulletin on Substack, called the race between Harris and Trump a “toss-up” in August. This came just weeks after he predicted in the same newsletter that Trump was certain to win against then-presumptive Democratic nominee President Joe Biden.
Silver’s popular vote forecast has shown Harris leading Trump by 1-2.5 percentage points for most of their campaign until now. In his presidential race model, Silver runs simulations using state-by-state polling data, factoring in the inherent uncertainty and variability of the polls.